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Analyst and Discounted Cash Flow

Overview​

The Analyst and Discounted Cash Flow profile brings together two valuation perspectives: external analyst expectations and intrinsic value estimates from MarketAlpha’s discounted cash flow (DCF) model. It helps you compare where the market is pricing a stock today versus where analysts think it may trade and where cash-flow-based valuation suggests it could be worth.

This profile is useful when reviewing stocks that look stretched, discounted, or misaligned with consensus expectations. It also adds technical, fundamental, and group context so valuation can be judged alongside trend quality and market behavior.

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This profile updates in real time and includes only common shares across all market sessions.

Strategy Focus​

  • Compare current price, analyst target, and DCF value in one view
  • Surface stocks trading well above or below analyst expectations
  • Identify names where market price diverges sharply from DCF valuation
  • Review analyst sentiment alongside internal valuation and technical context
  • Monitor valuation gaps ahead of earnings or other catalysts
  • Add industry and theme strength when judging whether a premium or discount makes sense

Filters Applied​

This profile applies one filter to keep the data consistent across operating companies:

  • Ticker Type = Common Shares: Excludes ETFs, REITs, SPACs, and other non-common-share instruments.

This keeps the profile focused on stocks where analyst coverage and cash-flow valuation are more directly comparable.

Metrics Used​

Valuation Comparison​

  • Analyst Consensus Target ($): The average 12-month price target from covering analysts. Useful as an external reference for expected upside or downside.
  • Analyst Consensus Target Distance (%): Measures how far the current price is from the average target, helping you quickly spot potential discounts or premiums.
  • Discounted Cash Flow ($): MarketAlpha’s internal DCF estimate based on projected free cash flows adjusted for time and risk.
  • Price to Discounted Cash Flow (%): Shows whether the stock is trading above or below its DCF-based intrinsic value estimate.

Sentiment and Composite Context​

  • Analyst Consensus Rating: Aggregated analyst sentiment such as Buy, Hold, or Sell. Useful when comparing valuation gaps with institutional opinion.
  • MarketAlpha Rating: Adds broader context by combining technical, structural, and fundamental strength in one score.

Trend and Group Context​

  • Relative Strength 1 Year: Helps show whether a premium or discount is occurring alongside strong or weak long-term price performance.
  • Industry Rating 1 Year and Theme Rating 1 Year: Add group context, which is useful when valuation premiums are concentrated in leading industries or themes.
  • Accumulation/Distribution Score: Helps confirm whether price and volume behavior support or contradict the analyst and DCF view.

Supporting Fundamentals and Timing​

  • Last Price ($): The current market price, used as the anchor for all valuation comparisons.
  • 52 Week High (%): Shows how close the stock is to a major breakout area or how far it has fallen from peak levels.
  • EPS Rating, Sales Rating, Profit Rating: Help determine whether valuation is supported by stronger earnings, revenue, and profitability trends.
  • Next Earnings In Days: Flags upcoming catalysts that may quickly change valuation perception.
  • Dollar Volume Rank: Keeps the most liquid and actively followed names near the top.

Default Sorting Logic​

Results are sorted by Dollar Volume Rank (ascending) to prioritize liquid names with stronger market visibility and participation.

Practical Use Cases​

  • Find stocks trading at a large discount or premium to analyst targets
  • Compare analyst sentiment with MarketAlpha’s internal DCF valuation
  • Review potential re-rating candidates ahead of earnings
  • Look for discounted stocks inside strong industries or themes
  • Spot names where price, analyst view, and DCF value are sharply out of line
  • Build valuation watchlists with added trend, group, and liquidity context